Project

Title:The economic benefit provided by working immigrants, especially second and subsequent generations
Number:DC401/2014
Project leader:PhDr. Jiří Vyhlídal, M.Sc.
Funding provider:MPSV
Co-worker:doc. Ing. Robert Jahoda, Ph.D.
Project leader-external:
Co-worker (external):
Project start:2014
Project end:2014
Recipient:VÚPSV, v.v.i.
Subrecipient:
Description:

The aim of the project is to answer the question as to whether and to what extent it is possible to solve the various problems related to current and expected demographic developments in the Czech Republic through labour immigration. Forecasts of future demographic development suggest that, over the long term, the fertility rate will remain below the limit of the simple reproduction of the population. As a result, the country’s population will decrease by more than 2.8 million people during the 21st century. The structure of society will also change significantly, especially as a result of the significant increase in the proportion of older people in the economic burden index. Consequently, it will be necessary to estimate the volume of immigration required to replace the loss caused by the overall decline in the population, particularly people of economically productive age. In order to quantify the impact of replacement immigration on the Czech pension system, a simulation model was developed based on outputs provided by the Bezděk Commission (2005) and expanded by the influence of the immigration variant. The model assesses the impact of immigration from the viewpoint of the following five indicators: (1) development of the migration balance, (2) population development in the Czech Republic, (3) development of selected dependence indices, (4) development of the old-age pension balance in percent of GDP and (5) development of the implicit pension deficit in percent of GDP. The results of the model are presented in the form of two variants, the first of which is termed the “zero migration” option representing the de facto cessation of immigration to the Czech Republic. The second variant is termed the “controlled replacement migration” option, which aims to better take into account future labour market and pension system requirements through immigration policy. In the case of zero immigration, the Czech Republic is threatened with the exacerbation of problems connected with the financing of the pension system while, conversely, an increased level of immigration may well become an important factor in terms of the financial sustainability thereof. This will apply, however, only if society is able to manage the volume and structure of immigration and, at the same time, introduce policies that will lead to the successful social and economic integration of immigrants.

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